Why the fears

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Michael O’Hanlon of Brookings Institution, who specialises in US national security policy, explains that “if the Pakistanis thought we were scheming to try to go after their nuclear weapons to prevent the possibility of a worst-case scenario, they would be quite put out, to put it mildly, and they would take measures like distributing those warheads even more than they already have. So, we do not really want to encourage this line of reasoning within the Pakistani military.” According to him, the ideal situation for Pakistan would be to keep the fissile material separate from the delivery vehicle. “Maybe, it is even separate from the rest of the bomb in all likelihood.”

Given this context, the question that many experts are asking is about the future course of US action. As Frederick Kagan, a military historian, puts it: “The US simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. But I do not envision and do not argue for any unilateral American option even under dire circumstances.” Instead, O’Hanlon says that America “is better off with a policy of quietly working with the Pakistanis to improve their procedures and safeguards.”

Another expert, Thomas Donnelly, Resident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute, is also in favour of “continuing to engage Pakistan, or trying to influence things internally.” The last words come from David Albright, President, Institute for Science and International Security, Washington: “In the event of an emergency involving Pakistan’s nuclear assets, the US should be prepared to act quickly if Musharraf asks for assistance.”

Why the fears

• A few Pakistani scientists have close links with terrorist groups
• Pakistan’s army is becoming more religious and Islamised
• If Musharraf distributes the nukes, the problem aggravates
• No one knows if the fissile material is separate in Pakistan
• The US doesn’t know how to deal with Pakistan or Musharraf

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008

An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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